Tampa Bay Rays David Price

Way back in March, when most people were doing their fantasy baseball drafts, many people were claiming David Price would be the next big thing. And after a terrific stint in the bullpen late in the regular season and in the playoffs, we had good reason to believe this to be true, not to mention he’s got tremendous stuff and had dominated the minors earlier in the year.

Many GMs scurried to make sure that Price was on their roster, and clung tight to him despite the fact that the Rays opted to send Price to the minors for April and most of May. Once Price was called up, the excitement about this pitcher returned, and everyone anxiously waited to see how effective he’d be.

After 12 starts, Price has been disappointing and inconsistent, posting a 4-4 record with a 5.10 ERA and 1.63 WHIP. Walks have been his downfall, as he’s walked 35 batters in only 60 innings. So now the big question is, “do I hang onto him, or cut him loose.” Unfortunately, the answer isn’t quite that simple.

Anyone in a keeper league should hold onto Price at this point. It’s late in the season and Price has shown flashes of the upside that everyone believes he has. In smaller leagues, however (or non-keeper leagues), Price probably belongs in the free agent pool, as there are a handful of more reliable options at this point in the season.

Others may be keen to use Price as a spot starter, because Price’s home and away stats are immensely different from one another. Price’s 4-1 record and 2.67 ERA at home are far better than his 0-3 record and 8.20 ERA on the road. Whether this trend continues or not is uncertain, but the difference is remarkable.

I will cut Price a bit of slack, though, since his road matchups have been a bit tougher than his home ones. On the road, Price has been rocked against the Rockies, Rangers, White Sox, and Blue Jays compared to only two really difficult matchups at home against the Phillies and Angels.

Yet another metric that backs up this split stats theory is prices day game/night game split. Price has been a much better pitcher during the day, with a 3.38 ERA at home and a 3-0 record, while he’s posted a 6.83 ERA and a 1-4 win-loss record on the road.

In case you haven’t figured it out by now, Price should really only be used as a spot starter for right now. If he’s pitching at home or he’s pitching during the day, I’d start him. If he’s not, then let him sit on your bench. You don’t need one bad start to destroy your ERA and WHIP for the entire week.

The only drawback to starting Price (despite the time of day or the stadium) is his high WHIP. Price has struggled with control issues during the 2009 season and has issued many walks through the course of the season. On the flip side, he’s averaging nearly a strikeout per inning, something that very few starting pitchers in baseball do.

Price certainly hasn’t lived up to the pre-season hype, but it’ll be interesting to see if he reaches his potential in the near future.

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